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Re: Equation of a Confidence Ellipse

To: Kyle Armstrong <kyle@biota.net.au>
Subject: Re: Equation of a Confidence Ellipse
From: Spencer Graves <spencer.graves@PDF.COM>
Date: Mon, 10 Mar 2003 07:21:09 -0800
Cc: s-news@lists.biostat.wustl.edu
References: <BA926D10.1510%kyle@biota.net.au>
User-agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.0; en-US; rv:1.0.2) Gecko/20021120 Netscape/7.01
2*log(likelihood ratio) is approximately chi-square.

For the (multivariate) normal distribution with known (co)variance (matrix), this is exact and becomes the following:

        t(x.bar-mu) %*% Sigma.x.bar.inverse %*% (x.bar-mu)

Set this equal to the (1-alpha) percentage point of the chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom = dim(mu). If Sigma.x.bar is estimated, then you may need an F distribution instead of a chi-square.

See Draper and Smith, Applied Regression Analysis or "profiling" or "profile likelihood" in Bates and Watts, Nonlinear Regression or Pinhiero and Bates, Mixed Effects Models in S and S-Plus, or look elsewhere for "profile likelihood.

For a prediction interval, you need to add the variability of an individual observation. This also should be discussed in the above references -- at least in Draper & Smith.

Hope this helps.
Spencer Graves

Kyle Armstrong wrote:
Hi,

I am at my wits end trying to solve this.  I would like to know if S-plus or
any other program can provide the equation of a confidence ellipse, or at
least information that I can easily build this equation from.  The equation
is important for another application.

I have three measured variables that I can use to run a discriminant
function analysis to define groups.  My data gives me two functions that I
can use to construct a scatterplot showing the separation and variation of
species groups.  I have used Systat to draw both 'centroid' and 'sample'
confidence ellipses around the variation in each group.  However, Systat
does not provide a formula for the ellipses.

While I am asking, there seems to be many types of confidence ellipses- what
is the difference between a data ellipse and a confidence ellipse, and where
does a predictive ellipse fit in?

In the event you are unable to help me, if there are any websites or other
people etc that you know could help, I would be very grateful for the info.
I don¹t own S-plus, but I may be able to access it at a local university.

Best regards,

Kyle
------------------------------------------------
Kyle Armstrong    kyle@biota.net.au
Zoologist
Biota Environmental Sciences Pty Ltd
First Floor Suite 2, 186 Scarborough Beach Road
Mount Hawthorn  Western Australia  6016
Tel. (08) 9201 9955, +61 8 9201 9955
Fax (08) 9201 9599, +61 8 9201 9599
-----------------------------------------------


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