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garch confidence intervals

To: "S" <s-news@wubios.wustl.edu>
Subject: garch confidence intervals
From: "deric hetzel" <dhetzel@sprintmail.com>
Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2001 21:11:55 -0400
Confidence intervals for a garch forecast.

I want to create a confidence interval for a garch estimate of next period's
standard deviation.  Using a simple garch(1,1) model with the observation
model being a simple univariate time  series, y(t) = c + e(t).  How do I
extract the coefficients, standard error of the coefficient, time t e, and
time t sigma to calculate the confidence interval of the estimate.

Thanks in advance,

Deric



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