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lme - confidence intervals for a prediction (again !)

To: <s-news@lists.biostat.wustl.edu>
Subject: lme - confidence intervals for a prediction (again !)
From: "Eric Lim" <eric.lim@cvsnet.org>
Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 12:19:46 +0100
Importance: Normal

Hi S-news community,

 

I have seen many many requests over the last 6 years or so requesting for help with confidence intervals for the predictions with lme, without any replies. I know that the se.fit option is not available for predict.lme.

 

Therefore, one solution is to manually work out the formula for the variance for the formula required.

 

Can I give you an example:

 

lm.3 <- lme (fev1 ~ timem + timem^2 + timem^3 + gp + gp:timem + gp:timem^2 +gp:timem^3, data="" random = ~ timem | id, na.action=na.omit)

 

Where fev1 is a measure of lung function with time (timem - months) and group (gp - surgery or not) by patient (id). It is straightforward to plot the difference of the 2 treatments as a cubic term with time, by plotting the coefficients of:

 

gp + gp:timem + gp:timem^2 + gp:timem^3

 

against time. But how can I calculate the variance of this 4 term equation to be able to derive the standard error? Is there an S plus function that will allow me determine the variance / covariance matrix and what is the formula for the variance of the 4 term equation given the variance / covariance values?

 

A solution to this problem, will provide the answer and put to rest the ghosts of many previously unanswered requests.

 

Kind regards,

 

Eric Lim

Papworth Hospital, Cambridge UK.

 

 

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